Calculating and Reassessing tasks using tracking data

RiskyProject uses tracking information for probabilistic calculations. The purpose of the calculation is to reassess the task duration, start, and finish dates based on the actual progress. As the deterministic current project schedule remains unchanged, you can compare your original estimates with the forecasted schedule.

Probabilistic tracking calculations are performed in the following manner:
•  If a task has tracking information, new forecasted task duration and finish times are calculated. The results of this calculation are instantly plotted on the tracking chart as a green rectangle. The task’s start time is actual start time entered in the tracking data.
•  The actual start time, forecasted task duration, and finish time are used for probabilistic calculations. If the percentage complete is greater than 0%, the Low, Base, and High durations are not used.
•  If the task has risks assigned to it (global or local), the chance of the risk is recalculated based on the current time, when the risk occurred, and the task completion percentage.
•  If the percentage completed equals zero, all risks are used with their original chances of occurrence.
•  If the percent completed equals 100, the chance of occurrence for all risks is internally set to zero. Although the original chance of risk occurrence is not changed, it is important to note that the actual outcome of risks changes.

Example
Originally, a task had duration of 10 days and there was a 20% chance that the task would be delayed 15% or 1.5 days. However, because of tracking information, the duration was forecasted to be 20 days. In this case, the chance of the risk occurrence is recalculated internally and reduced. However, the delay is recalculated based on forecasted duration and now equals 3 days (20 days * 15%).

See also

Tracking Performance

Tracking Results